THE CHOKEPOINT RISK INDEX QUANTIFIES SOMETHING EVERY PHYSICAL TRADER KNOWS BUT NO SYSTEM MEASURES: THE HIDDEN FRICTION THAT TURNS HEADLINE SPREADS INTO HEADACHES. TRADERS OFTEN PITCH NEW MARKETS OR CUSTOMERS BASED ON APPARENT PRICE UPLIFT — A DOLLAR OR TWO ABOVE BENCHMARK — BUT THAT’S ONLY THE SURFACE. BENEATH IT LIE REAL-WORLD CONSTRAINTS: MINIMUM VOLUME COMMITMENTS, RAILCAR LEASE TERMS, PORT CONGESTION, SEASONAL DEMURRAGE, CUSTOMS LAG, AND THE GRADUAL EROSION OF FLOW ASSURANCE.
THE INDEX COMPRESSES THAT BACKGROUND NOISE — LOGISTICAL, REGULATORY, AND OPERATIONAL DELAYS — INTO ONE COMPARABLE "HASSLE SCORE". A LOW SCORE SIGNALS FLUID, RESILIENT TRADE FLOW; A HIGH SCORE WARNS THAT PAPER PROFITS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE ONCE REAL ASSETS START MOVING.
FOR OIL AND GAS EXECUTIVES, IT’S AN EARLY LENS INTO NETBACK REALITY BEFORE CAPITAL OR CAPACITY GETS TRAPPED. FOR TRADERS, IT BENCHMARKS NEW ROUTES AND CUSTOMERS WITH A STANDARDIZED MEASURE OF FRICTION INSTEAD OF GUT FEEL. FOR TECH OR DATA INVESTORS, IT’S THE MISSING LAYER BETWEEN ETRMS (WHICH TRACK CONTRACTS) AND PHYSICAL LOGISTICS (WHICH ABSORB COST).
IN SHORT, THE CHOKEPOINT RISK INDEX TURNS THE "HASSLE FACTOR" FROM ANECDOTE INTO DATA — ANALYZABLE, COMPARABLE, AND ULTIMATELY HEDGEABLE.
| ROUTE | HASSLE SCORE | MODE | TYPICAL CONSTRAINTS | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATYRAU → AKTAU → TRANS-CASPIAN → BTC | █ 4.5 | MULTIMODAL | MULTIPLE BORDERS, WEATHER RISK | POLITICAL EXPOSURE |
| ATYRAU → BLACK SEA (GEORGIA) | ▆ 3.8 | RAIL | LIMITED CARS, MOUNTAIN TERRAIN | FLEXIBLE WHEN CPC FULL |
| ATYRAU → CPC → NOVOROSSIYSK | ▂ 2.2 | PIPELINE | QUOTA LIMITS, MAINTENANCE | EFFICIENT, RUSSIA EXPOSURE |
| ATYRAU → TAMAN (BLACK SEA) | ▃ 3.3 | RAIL | WAGON SHORTAGE, TERMINAL ACCESS | HEAVY COORDINATION |
| ATYRAU → UST-LUGA (BALTIC) | █ 4.8 | RAIL | LONG HAUL, SANCTION RISK | HIGH DELAY, CAPITAL LOCKUP |
| ROUTE | HASSLE SCORE | MODE | TYPICAL CONSTRAINTS | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDMONTON → BURNABY (TMX) | ▂ 2.0 | PIPELINE | FULL CAPACITY, APPORTIONMENT | STABLE, LIMITED OPTIONS |
| EDMONTON → HARDISTY → USGC (KEYSTONE) | ▃ 2.7 | PIPELINE | CROSS-BORDER PERMITS | GOOD INFRASTRUCTURE |
| EDMONTON → PRINCE RUPERT | ▆ 3.5 | RAIL + MARINE | TERRAIN, WINTER DELAYS | EXPENSIVE BUT WORKABLE |
| EDMONTON → VANCOUVER | ▃ 3.2 | RAIL | SLOT CONSTRAINTS, DEMURRAGE | COSTLY, FASTER THAN NORTH |
| EDMONTON → THUNDER BAY → ATLANTIC | █ 4.4 | RAIL + G.LAKES | MULTIPLE TRANSFERS, ICE | MARGINAL, DELAY RISK |